FILE -- National Health Service (NHS) workers are tested for Coronavirus (Covid-19) at a drive through testing site on April 07, 2020 in Wolverhampton, England. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
SALT LAKE CITY— You’ve seen the headlines. Virus cases are booming across the country, and teeming in states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona. Utah’s cases have surged as well. But these facts are accompanied by some mitigating statistics: At this time, COVID death rates are actually going down.
Some doctors are quick to say that this is the tip of a delayed iceberg, and lives lost will soon catch up. That’s because health experts say that mortality rates are an indicator of what things were like almost a month ago.
“The sinking death rates reflect the state of the pandemic a month or more ago, experts say, when the original hot spots had been contained and other states had only just begun to open up restaurants and other businesses. That means it could still be another few weeks before we really start to see the consequences, in lives lost, of the recent spikes in cases,” policy reporter Dylan Scott writes.
Salt Lake County Health Department Epidemiologist Michelle Vowles is realistic about the death counts. “It’s great to see we’re seeing lower death rates, but we don’t know what that means for us. We’re not seeing an increase in our death numbers, yet.” Vowles does offers a few explanations, however, on why death counts are receding that actually offers a bit of hope.
Vowles says we’re seeing a “shift” of the virus to a younger population. A younger demographic that doesn’t get the more of the complications of COVID. She notes that the Beehive State is a prime example. “We do tend to have a healthy and young population [in comparison to other states] so that’s an advantage.” Vowles says that the older population and at risk populations “are doing more to protect themselves… lessening fatalities.”
Finally, a theory that Vowles says is being explored by European researchers: That the pathogen has changed. “A shift in the coronavirus itself in maybe being more contagious and less deadly. But we don’t have any evidence yet that that’s [happening in the States.]”
COVID-19 coronaviruses transmitted from person to person. It is a virus that is similar to the common cold and the flu. So, to prevent it from spreading:
Utah’s Coronavirus Information
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints
Utah Coronavirus Information Line – 1-800-456-7707
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Commonly asked questions, World Health Organization